The price of El Niño: maize in Mozambique could be hit hard – along with other agriculture in Southern Africa

1 September 2026

The UK's national Meteorological Office has reported that this year's El Niño event is set to be the strongest in living memory – with hotter global temperatures expected towards the backend of 2026 and into next year, making it "very likely" that 2027 will be the hottest year on record globally.

El Niño, in short, is a climate phenomenon which occurs every 2-7 years, pushing global temperatures up for about 12 months, usually increasing the risks of extreme weather across many regions around the world like droughts and wildfires, but also flooding.

In August, the BBC reported that during this El Niño period the world's oceans have hit the highest temperature on record. At the same time, the Panama Canal will reduce its shipping as El Niño fuels drought in lakes that feed the waterway.

One of the many areas affected is Southern Africa, where El Niño related droughts have historically hit agriculture extremely hard – and Mozambique is a country expected to experience below-average rainfall in parts of the country along with above-average temperatures, as forecast by the US Famine Early Warning Systems Network. This means agricultural areas planted for the 2026/27 season are expected to decline, "likely reducing agricultural labor opportunities and household income from October to January."

Looking back, an El Niño event during 2015 left agriculture in the region devastated, especially maize – an important staple food in Mozambique which relies on rainfall, rather than irrigation. Retail maize prices doubled in Mozambique and Malawi around a decade ago during that same event, as reported by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization.

Domestic maize production usually occurs in the center or northern parts of Mozambique, meaning the south relies on surplus maize to be transported down from the north. If there's no surplus, then the southern parts rely on exports from their neighbour South Africa – who also faces the same agricultural vulnerability brought upon by El Niño.

Food prices have already been on the rise in Mozambique. According to WageIndicator’s latest Cost of Living data, the average cost of food has increased by 4.97% from Q2 to Q3.

WageIndicator's Cost of Living database breaks prices down into specific categories – housing and utilities, food, transport, healthcare, and more – using real fieldwork. Data collectors physically visit local markets and shops to record prices for over 70 food items in close to 200 countries, updated every financial quarter. These figures feed directly into WageIndicator's living wage calculations – the minimum a worker needs to earn to cover basic costs for themselves and their family.

With food prices already rising, regional agricultural supply at risk, and one of the strongest El Niños in living memory bearing down, the coming months carry real economic risk for Mozambican families – particularly those in the south.

WageIndicator will continue tracking food and other costs of living in Mozambique now and beyond the 2026/27 agriculture season, as new Q3 Living Wage estimates, plus annual guidance and yearly averages are released in October.