SEAD Project: The Automotive Sector Is Shifting Gears - And So Is Social Dialogue

2 July 2026

Automotive sector and social dialogue: looking ahead to 2040

From algorithmic management to increased automation, the automotive sector in Central and Eastern Europe is shifting gears. Alongside the rapid changes affecting it, the region is also feeling the effects of rapid and far-reaching global trends: an ageing workforce, migration, the green transition, and a breakdown in international cooperation. What might the future hold?

A series of foresight workshops were held across the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary as part of the EU-funded SEAD project, with this question driving the discussions. Trade unionists, employers’ associations, and NGO experts came together in the three countries to evaluate various challenges, flesh out scenarios for up to 15 years, and identify mitigation measures.

Why these workshops, and how

Kicked off in December 2025, the SEAD project brings employers and workers together to strengthen social dialogue in the automotive industry and help all sides navigate a rapidly changing sector through research, training, and networking activities.

This year’s workshops introduced trade union and employers’ association representatives to global trends affecting the automotive sector, both directly and indirectly, as well as industry-specific trends. Participants were then encouraged to discuss which topics had the greatest potential impact yet had been explored the least. The aim was to maximise the possibility of identifying surprising or difficult-to-predict future developments, as well as 'blind spots'. The next step was to map out possible scenarios and identify solutions.

Trends and scenarios: imagining the automotive sector up to 2040

1. Accelerating technological change and automation. In one of the most shared scenarios, both the economy and everyday life are strongly shaped by technological development. New technologies and heavily automated production in the automotive sector lead to shorter working hours and increased productivity, offsetting the impact of an ageing population unable to work. As was discussed in Bratislava, if automation replaces low-skilled jobs, the nature of work could change from being predominantly physical to being predominantly cognitive or mental. This could see Slovakia evolve from an assembly workshop into a knowledge and service-centred hub. The question remains, though, as to how the benefits will be distributed and what impact this will have on qualified labour. As was talked about during the Czech workshop, while automation could replace low-skilled jobs in the automotive sector (with consequent layoffs), it might also result in skilled job positions becoming fragmented, leaving the local industry with nothing but assembly lines.
2. Overall reduction in the sector's workforce. The Czech participants focused particularly on automation, population ageing, and outsourcing leading to a general reduction in the number of employees. Automotive companies and supply chains could end up relocating abroad, and trade unions experience a decline in membership.
3. Environment and resources. From an environmental point of view, the Hungarian participants emphasised overpopulation and the strain it puts on resources, while Slovakian participants discussed a scenario where new materials simultaneously emerge that are difficult or impossible to recycle. This could result in further environmental issues and exacerbate the impact of climate change. Against this backdrop, investments in environmental projects would likely stop, marking the failure of the green transition around 2040. In this context, though, some participants were more optimistic: an increase in demand for energy sources due to AI would create a genuine necessity to invest in nuclear power and renewable sources.
4. Weakened international cooperation and a fragmented economy. In another scenario, a certain degree of breakdown in international cooperation has occurred. The global economy fragments, and disruptions to supply chains lead to a reassessment of how industry and trade currently function. Companies that previously relied on foreign inputs need to operate without them, depending primarily on local resources.
5. New supply chains. Due to its potential role in new conflicts, the trend of military-industrial innovation is continuous, as is the development of defence technologies. During the workshop in Budapest, it was stressed how new supply chains and dependencies are likely to emerge in Europe, requiring high tech knowledge and continuous training.
6. Social unrest. Rising unemployment and an overall economic decline are likely to manifest in large-scale social unrest. Financial difficulties affect individuals, states and companies alike, resulting in a decline in living standards and significant psychological impacts.

Measures: how to manage changes for the benefit of everyone

If change is inevitable, a sustainable and fair transition must be ensured in all areas, including the automotive sector, society and the environment.

The groups in Slovakia agreed that the first step for the states should be to develop a comprehensive industrial strategy and encourage diversification. Both states and companies should invest in research and development and cybersecurity. The growing influence of AI should be addressed through legislation and taxation of robotised labour. Strengthening health and social security systems is the best way to respond to an ageing population, and trade unions should be also ready to seek new members in new sectors even outside of industry.

As per the discussions in Hungary, high-quality education and new job creation are needed to absorb the workforce displaced by technological change. The workshop also came up with possible measures to benefit from the creation of new supply chains, like strengthened research and development further training. Another priority area is cybersecurity, alongside transparency and raising social awareness of new conflict issues. In the face of overpopulation and overloaded utilities, as well as social inequalities, participants recognised the need to distribute large investments and develop infrastructure in collaboration with communities. Stricter environmental protection, particularly with regard to large water reservoirs, is justified, as is the establishment of more monitoring and regulatory authorities. Last but not least, participants would focus on increasing local added value through quality-based production.

In the Czech Republic, participants emphasised the need to explore the taxation of automated labour and strengthen legislative protections against the precarisation of workers. Structural changes are also required, merging trade unions beyond sector specialisations and integrating workers into collective bargaining. Above all, social dialogue should enhance communication, foster a culture of participation, and advocate for the inclusion of socio-ecological issues in company-level collective agreements.

Key Takeaway

In short, what is needed is a multi-level, coordinated intervention that incorporates strategic thinking, education, innovation and the consistent enforcement of environmental and social aspects. Not a passive response to changes, but rather a conscious, holistic approach to incorporating them.

If the automotive sector today looks nothing like it did a decade ago, 2040 may look very different indeed - and these workshops served as an early map of the road ahead.